It is currently Sat May 26, 2018 10:56 pm

The Highest-Rated QB in FIU History - It's Not Who You Think

View active topics

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 15 posts ] 
Author Message
 PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 11:16 pm   
Golden Panther
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:30 pm
Posts: 623
OK longtime FIU fans, can you guess who is the highest-rated QB in FIU history with at least 25 attempts?

Wes Carroll?

Alex McGough?

Jamie Burke?

Nope. Guess again.

It's Christian Alexander.

That's right... Christian Alexander.

Marinate on that for a while.

Don't believe me? Do the calculations yourself.

For FIU QB's that have attempted at least 25 throws in their career, Christian Alexander is not only the highest rated passer in FIU's history... he is BY FAR the highest rated passer in FIU's history.

Granted, he's had VERY LIMITED chances... only attempting 34 throws. But that's not his fault. It's Ron Turner's fault and Butch Davis' fault. My ONLY criticism of Butch Davis so far is that he didn't give Christian any snaps in the bowl game against Temple last year.

Here are the QB passer ratings of all FIU QB's in our history with at least 25 passing attempts:

Christian Alexander - 117
Wes Carroll - 86
Alex McGough - 85
David Tabor - 85
Jamie Burke - 84
Jake Medlock - 83
E.J. Hilliard - 81
Paul McCall - 80
Josh Padrick - 70
Wayne Younger - 47
Maurice Alexander - 47

As you can see, Christian Alexander's passer rating is by far the highest. It is the only rating that's more than one standard deviation above the average. By comparison, second-place Wes Carroll's passer rating is 0.4 standard deviations higher than the average. Christian Alexander's passer rating is 2 standard deviations higher than the average. It's not even close.

You can't ignore these numbers. Numbers don't lie.

It's true that 34 attempts is a small number. But most statisticians would say it's large enough of a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from. I realize Christian wasn't playing against first-string defenses, but his passer rating is so far above the others, you simply can't ignore it. And remember, Maurice Alexander, E.J. Hilliard, and David Tabor didn't play against first-string defenses either. Their QB ratings aren't even close to Christian's.

Look at these numbers, you have to wonder why in the world Butch Davis chose to play Maurice Alexander in the bowl game against Temple instead of Christian Alexander. We'll never know. The only logical answer is that he was injured. If not, it was a monumental mistake.

The bottom line is Christian deserves a fair chance to compete for the starting job. He's earned more snaps. James Morgan may ultimately win the QB job, but Christian deserves a fair and honest look.

By the way, want to know James Morgan's passer rating at Bowling Green? It was 70.

My point? Don't write off Christian Alexander. Give the kid a fair chance... for the first time in his career.

Let the best man win. And give FIU it's best chance at success.

Good luck to them both. I want both to do well.

_________________
FIU is the city of Miami's only state university.
FIU is Miami State University.

Official Name:
State University of Florida at Miami, or
Miami State University of Florida, or
Miami Florida State University


Last edited by SouthPaw on Sun May 13, 2018 11:44 am, edited 2 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 7:56 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2010 11:48 pm
Posts: 1167
Location: GA
SouthPaw wrote:
OK longtime FIU fans, can you guess who is the highest-rated QB with at least 25 attempts?

Wes Carroll?

Alex McGough?

Jamie Burke?

Nope.

It's Christian Alexander.

That's right... Christian Alexander.

Marinate on that for a while.

For FIU QB's that have attempted at least 25 throws in their career, Christian Alexander is not only the highest rated passer in FIU's history, he is BY FAR the highest rated passer in FIU's history.

Granted, he's had VERY LIMITED chances. He's only attempted 34 throws. But that's not his fault. It's Ron Turner's and Butch Davis' fault. My ONLY criticism of Butch Davis is that he didn't give Christian any snaps in the bowl game against Temple last year.

Don't believe me? Do the calculations yourself.

Here's the QB passer ratings of all FIU QB's in our history with at least 25 passing attempts:

Christian Alexander - 117
Wes Carroll - 86
Alex McGough - 85
David Tabor - 85
Jamie Burke - 84
Jake Medlock - 83
E.J. Hilliard - 81
Paul McCall - 80
Josh Padrick - 70
Wayne Younger - 47
Maurice Alexander - 47

Christian Alexander has not only the highest rating, but his rating is by far the highest. It is the only rating that is more than 1 standard deviation above the average passer rating of all FIU QB's. Wes Carroll's and Alex McGough's passer ratings are .4 standard deviations higher than the average. Christian Alexander's passer rating is 2 standard deviations higher than the average. It's not even close.

Numbers don't lie. You can't ignore the numbers.

It's true that 34 attempts is a small number. But most statisticians would say that it's large enough of a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from. I realize he wasn't playing against first-string defenses, but his passer rating is so far outside of the average, you can't ignore it. Maurice Alexander, E.J. Hilliard, and David Tabor didn't play against first-string defenses either. Their QB ratings aren't even close to Christian's.

Why in the world did Butch Davis play Maurice Alexander in the bowl game against Temple instead of Christian Alexander? We'll never know. But we do know that it was a monumental mistake. Christian deserves a fair chance to prove himself. James Morgan may ultimately win the Qb job, but Christian deserves a fair and honest look.

By the way, want to know James Morgan's passer rating at Bowling Green? It was 70.

My point? Don't write off Christian Alexander. Give the kid a fair chance... for the first time in his career.

Let the best man win. And give FIU it's best chance at success. Good luck to them both.


Christian is now the most senior returning QB on the roster. He has a year+ with Rich's playbook. I don't expect the coaches to simple pick a body based on hype, Christian needs to go to camp and earn the QB1 position.

_________________
2010 Sunbelt Conference Baseball Champion
2010 Sunbelt Conference Football Champion
2010 Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Champion


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 9:00 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:43 pm
Posts: 2565
SouthPaw,

This statistic is interesting. I will give you that. However, you then proceed to provide a list of reasons why the statistic may be skewed. You and I both know numbers can lie. You must compare apples to apples. Do you honestly think if Alex McGough came in at the times Christian did in his career, Alex wouldn't have similar numbers?

I'll agree with you that "Christian deserves a fair and honest look." And I believe Butch Davis will give each of the QBs a fair and honest look. If anything Christian has a large advantage over James Morgan having been in the offense for a year already and having another spring practice to build chemistry with the WRs. I don't know why Christian didn't play in the bowl game, but I'm starting to question if there was something going on off the field... Maybe Christian missed a team meeting or something. Clearly, he seems to be a better QB than Maurice.


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:54 pm   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:52 am
Posts: 4763
Building A Dynasty wrote:
SouthPaw,

This statistic is interesting. I will give you that. However, you then proceed to provide a list of reasons why the statistic may be skewed. You and I both know numbers can lie. You must compare apples to apples. Do you honestly think if Alex McGough came in at the times Christian did in his career, Alex wouldn't have similar numbers?

I'll agree with you that "Christian deserves a fair and honest look." And I believe Butch Davis will give each of the QBs a fair and honest look. If anything Christian has a large advantage over James Morgan having been in the offense for a year already and having another spring practice to build chemistry with the WRs. I don't know why Christian didn't play in the bowl game, but I'm starting to question if there was something going on off the field... Maybe Christian missed a team meeting or something. Clearly, he seems to be a better QB than Maurice.


The move of Maurice to WR finally settles the Maurice-Christian conversations. But what took so long? Why not the Bowl Game? Maybe because Maurice had played more under Turner and was more "game ready?". Who knows.

May the best man win the job! I'm taking Morgan because of the greater reps (NCAA Experience) and high school rankings. But, we've had a Grad Transfer QB here before who saw very little action (Pittsburg Transfer as I recall).

Again, May the best man wing the job.

_________________
"It's called opportunity, that's what life is all about, you get an opportunity and I think these guys are anxious to have this opportunity and do something with it" - FIU Coach Ron Turner


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:05 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Mon May 09, 2011 10:20 am
Posts: 1790
May the best QB win. I'm not rooting for one over the other. Who ever is best, plays. That's all I want. I also want consistency. That's what matters most.


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 7:04 pm   
Golden Panther
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:44 pm
Posts: 989
Location: Daytona Beach, FL
This thread reminds me of when I prep for game broadcasts and I run across a stat which seems really off. Doesn't happen all the time, but often enough, and when that happens, it's usually due to the way it's computed.

34 attempts is a teeny tiny sample size, Southpaw (welcome back to the board, Mr. Gold)... and when you factor in that it came mostly in blowouts against second stringers, I just don't think you can take all that much from it.

If you want to use it to say CA should get a fair look in the fall, fair enough. But even if his career rating was closer to MA's, I'd still give him a good look in the fall. He's now the most experienced QB on the roster. If he's going to step up, it should be now.

Having said that... context matters. No one could possibly put him on the top rank of FIU QB's all-time. I don't care what his career rating is. He's not played enough for any of us to really know how good he is.

I do think it's fair to wonder why he's not gotten more run. I don't think it's a physical talent thing, for what it's worth, and it doesn't appear to be a behavioral issue. Maybe more mental?


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 10:48 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:13 pm
Posts: 1934
Two words: Sample size


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 6:37 pm   
Golden Panther
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:30 pm
Posts: 623
One word: statistics.

I'm not going to get into a mathematics debate with the people on this board. There's plenty of information out there on statistics and mathematics you can read for yourself if you are interested. I majored in both for a while at FIU before finally switching to a degree that offered more employment opportunities.

But the bottom line is this...

You don't need a sample of 5,000 throws to know if one quarterback is better than another. There's lots of research that proves a sample needs to be at least 30 or higher to have any statistical value. But after a certain size of a sample is drawn, you're basically wasting your time.

The size of any sample depends on a lot of different factors, including what confidence level and confidence interval you are willing to accept, as well as the size and variability of the population being sampled. I'm not saying a larger sample of Christian's work wouldn't be more meaningful. Of course it would. But you also can't blindly ignore his numbers and write them off. He's played in more than one game. And he's thrown more than a handful of passes. In fact, he's thrown 4 touchdowns, double that of Maurice Alexander. And he did it in 12 less games than Maurice and with less than a quarter of the attempts (114 fewer passes).

But here's what's important.... Christian's passer rating is so far above the other FIU QB's that even though the confidence interval and confidence level isn't as high as they would be if we were looking at a larger sample of his work, the data clearly tells us that he deserved more playing time than he's gotten. What do I mean?

Let's say the small sample size is artificially inflating his passer rating by say 30%. Keep in mind that the small sample size has an equal chance of understating his true passer rating. His rating might actually be higher if he got more playing time. But let's assume--for the sake of this argument--that his true rating would be 30% lower if he got the same number of attempts as other FIU QB's. In that case, his passer rating would be 90. That's still higher than all other QB's in FIU's history. That's why I'm saying you can't write off his numbers. Right now, he's a clear outlier. He's clearly the best from a numeric point-of-view.

Maybe he stinks in practice but is great in games. I don't know. But what the data says is that when he gets a chance in games, he performs at a level far above all other QB's in FIU's history.

And the argument that Christian didn't play against first-string defenses doesn't hold water with me. Sure, that's true. But neither did E.J. Hilliard, David Tabor, or Maurice Alexander. And Christian's passer rating is much, much higher than theirs. But more importantly, you guys seem to be forgetting that he's not playing with first-string offensive players either. He's playing behind second- and third-string offensive linemen. And he's throwing to backup wide receivers and tight ends.

I still think James Morgan will win the job. The coaches are going to favor him. It's his to lose. But I feel good about having Christian as a back-up. He has earned more snaps.

Good luck to them both.

_________________
FIU is the city of Miami's only state university.
FIU is Miami State University.

Official Name:
State University of Florida at Miami, or
Miami State University of Florida, or
Miami Florida State University


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:58 pm   
Juvenile Panther

Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:45 pm
Posts: 27
SouthPaw wrote:
One word: statistics.

I'm not going to get into a mathematics debate with the people on this board. There's plenty of information out there on statistics and mathematics you can read for yourself if you are interested. I majored in both for a while at FIU before finally switching to a degree that offered more employment opportunities.

But the bottom line is this...

You don't need a sample of 5,000 throws to know if one quarterback is better than another. There's lots of research that proves a sample needs to be at least 30 or higher to have any statistical value. But after a certain size of a sample is drawn, you're basically wasting your time.

The size of any sample depends on a lot of different factors, including what confidence level and confidence interval you are willing to accept, as well as the size and variability of the population being sampled. I'm not saying a larger sample of Christian's work wouldn't be more meaningful. Of course it would. But you also can't blindly ignore his numbers and write them off. He's played in more than one game. And he's thrown more than a handful of passes. In fact, he's thrown 4 touchdowns, double that of Maurice Alexander. And he did it in 12 less games than Maurice and with less than a quarter of the attempts (114 fewer passes).

But here's what's important.... Christian's passer rating is so far above the other FIU QB's that even though the confidence interval and confidence level isn't as high as they would be if we were looking at a larger sample of his work, the data clearly tells us that he deserved more playing time than he's gotten. What do I mean?

Let's say the small sample size is artificially inflating his passer rating by say 30%. Keep in mind that the small sample size has an equal chance of understating his true passer rating. His rating might actually be higher if he got more playing time. But let's assume--for the sake of this argument--that his true rating would be 30% lower if he got the same number of attempts as other FIU QB's. In that case, his passer rating would be 90. That's still higher than all other QB's in FIU's history. That's why I'm saying you can't write off his numbers. Right now, he's a clear outlier. He's clearly the best from a numeric point-of-view.

Maybe he stinks in practice but is great in games. I don't know. But what the data says is that when he gets a chance in games, he performs at a level far above all other QB's in FIU's history.

And the argument that Christian didn't play against first-string defenses doesn't hold water with me. Sure, that's true. But neither did E.J. Hilliard, David Tabor, or Maurice Alexander. And Christian's passer rating is much, much higher than theirs. But more importantly, you guys seem to be forgetting that he's not playing with first-string offensive players either. He's playing behind second- and third-string offensive linemen. And he's throwing to backup wide receivers and tight ends.

I still think James Morgan will win the job. The coaches are going to favor him. It's his to lose. But I feel good about having Christian as a back-up. He has earned more snaps.

Good luck to them both.


giggling uncontrollably...


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 8:22 pm   
Golden Panther
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:30 pm
Posts: 623
You are embarrassing yourself, Miss Giggles.

_________________
FIU is the city of Miami's only state university.
FIU is Miami State University.

Official Name:
State University of Florida at Miami, or
Miami State University of Florida, or
Miami Florida State University


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 10:13 pm   
Juvenile Panther

Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:45 pm
Posts: 27
SouthPaw wrote:
You are embarrassing yourself, Miss Giggles.


No...I am pretty sure the consensus on here is that you have cornered that market.


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 11:21 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:43 pm
Posts: 2565
SouthPaw,

EJ Hilliard and Maurice Alexander certainly did play against first-string defenses at times. Maurice basically played the whole bowl game... Anyway, we'll see what happens once James gets here.


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 12:39 pm   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:13 pm
Posts: 1934
FAU Connoisseur wrote:
SouthPaw wrote:
You are embarrassing yourself, Miss Giggles.


No...I am pretty sure the consensus on here is that you have cornered that market.


:mrgreen: :lol: :mrgreen:


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 9:41 am   
Golden Panther
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:44 pm
Posts: 989
Location: Daytona Beach, FL
SouthPaw wrote:
One word: statistics.

I'm not going to get into a mathematics debate with the people on this board. There's plenty of information out there on statistics and mathematics you can read for yourself if you are interested. I majored in both for a while at FIU before finally switching to a degree that offered more employment opportunities.

But the bottom line is this...

You don't need a sample of 5,000 throws to know if one quarterback is better than another. There's lots of research that proves a sample needs to be at least 30 or higher to have any statistical value. But after a certain size of a sample is drawn, you're basically wasting your time.

The size of any sample depends on a lot of different factors, including what confidence level and confidence interval you are willing to accept, as well as the size and variability of the population being sampled. I'm not saying a larger sample of Christian's work wouldn't be more meaningful. Of course it would. But you also can't blindly ignore his numbers and write them off. He's played in more than one game. And he's thrown more than a handful of passes. In fact, he's thrown 4 touchdowns, double that of Maurice Alexander. And he did it in 12 less games than Maurice and with less than a quarter of the attempts (114 fewer passes).

But here's what's important.... Christian's passer rating is so far above the other FIU QB's that even though the confidence interval and confidence level isn't as high as they would be if we were looking at a larger sample of his work, the data clearly tells us that he deserved more playing time than he's gotten. What do I mean?

Let's say the small sample size is artificially inflating his passer rating by say 30%. Keep in mind that the small sample size has an equal chance of understating his true passer rating. His rating might actually be higher if he got more playing time. But let's assume--for the sake of this argument--that his true rating would be 30% lower if he got the same number of attempts as other FIU QB's. In that case, his passer rating would be 90. That's still higher than all other QB's in FIU's history. That's why I'm saying you can't write off his numbers. Right now, he's a clear outlier. He's clearly the best from a numeric point-of-view.

Maybe he stinks in practice but is great in games. I don't know. But what the data says is that when he gets a chance in games, he performs at a level far above all other QB's in FIU's history.

And the argument that Christian didn't play against first-string defenses doesn't hold water with me. Sure, that's true. But neither did E.J. Hilliard, David Tabor, or Maurice Alexander. And Christian's passer rating is much, much higher than theirs. But more importantly, you guys seem to be forgetting that he's not playing with first-string offensive players either. He's playing behind second- and third-string offensive linemen. And he's throwing to backup wide receivers and tight ends.

I still think James Morgan will win the job. The coaches are going to favor him. It's his to lose. But I feel good about having Christian as a back-up. He has earned more snaps.

Good luck to them both.


I never majored in stats but I've done enough work with them in sports and news to know you're right about sample sizes. I wouldn't totally dismiss what CA has done, either. I just don't think it's worth a whole lot at this point.

About the only thing I would conclusively take is I'd give him a good, hard look as the potential starter in fall camp. But that's assuming there's no other negative factors and we don't know that part. Maybe he's not a good leader or good in the locker room. Maybe the coaches don't like how he practices or preps or his gym work. Who knows?

I suspect it'll be Morgan, too. For whatever reason, Butch & Co don't seem to trust CA. Or maybe they just felt better with MA last season. I don't know why else he wouldn't have played. Lord knows it's not like MA was ripping it up at any point.

If CA isn't starting at the beginning of the year, though, I think you can safely say he won't play unless Morgan is hurt. If he's going to win the job, the time is now.


Top
 Profile  
 PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:12 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:25 am
Posts: 652
Put those stats in an envelope and mail them over to the coach--I think our executive committee has weighed in sufficiently. Meantime, my guess is that while Christian has the strongest arm of any QB we've had, with the possible exception of our very first, he has not demonstrated much mobility or touch when forced out of the pocket--hard to say, since those are issues not really addressed in those 34 snaps. I saw him take just about all of them and to be honest, the longest run I have ever seen him take is when he steps into his throw.
During the Spring Game year before last, he moved a bit in the pocket on a couple of throws, both of which were well off target. All that said, the fact that he did not enter the bowl game despite the fact that Maurice was going backwards from the first snap he took remains perhaps the greatest mystery in FIU football history, with the possible exception of "How did Pooh Bah Mars ever earn a four-star recruit rating?" I wish BD would have just come out and said why he didn't put him in, because not to have done so seems a monumentally stupid coaching decision on the face of it.


Top
 Profile  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 15 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 7 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  


Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Style originally created by Volize © 2003 • Redesigned SkyLine by MartectX © 2008 - 2009