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My prediction for the rest of FIU season

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 PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:20 pm   
Cougar

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:01 pm
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Im not an FIU fan but Id like to see you guys in a bowl especially if FSU stays home.
You guys are 4-2 but your FBS wins are against teams with a combined win total of 3 games.
Ill try to be fairly objective


1) Marshall - Blowout loss, they are easily one of the best defenses in the G5.
2) UTSA- Winnable but not easily
3) ODU- FIU should be able to win this one.
4) FAU- FAU is REALLY good this year but we both know rivalry games can go oddly. However given that FIU allowed charlotte to score 30 points and MTSU to score 37...its probably going to be a long night for FIU but I do not expect FAU to be able to put you guys away early (probably pulling away late in the 3rd quarter as your defense gets worn down by FAU's rushing attack).
5) WKU- A bit uphill but its within grasp, this is not the WKU of last year.
6) Umass - I think FIU can handle them

So a low end 6-6 on the high end 8-4?

A 7 or 8 win FIU in the bahamas bowl would be an easy sell especially with cruiseships in distress due to lack of cruising due to irma and maria.


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 PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:38 pm   
Golden Panther

Joined: Mon May 09, 2011 10:20 am
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Pretty well thought out remainder of our schedule. I can pretty much agree with you. ODU will be tougher than we'd hope. FAU is much better this year. UMAss is tougher than we believe. UTSA is not very good, so, winnable.

Basically, we have to find a way to win 2 games out of 3 between ODU, UTSA, and UMass.

If we do that, we go bowling.


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 PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:24 pm   
Golden Panther
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I'd like to get to 7 wins to be super sure we go bowling. 6 wins and the fact that we dont travel well means we might not get an invite.


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 PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:21 pm   
Golden Panther
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voss749 wrote:
You guys are 4-2 but your FBS wins are against teams with a combined win total of 3 games.


FBS wins against teams with combined win total of FIVE games. Haha just saying...


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 PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:28 am   
Golden Panther

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According to ESPN's Football Power Index, here are the win probabilities for the remaining games:

@ Marshall: 10.1%
UTSA: 27.0%
ODU: 59.7%
@ FAU: 10.7%
WKU: 39.3%
UMASS: 41.7%

So technically, FIU is only favored in the ODU game, but one would hope FIU could "upset" 1 of the remaining 5 teams.... My brain tells me FIU finishes 6-6 or 7-5, but I can't bet against Butch and co. after that Tulane game.


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 PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:49 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:52 am
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Building A Dynasty wrote:
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, here are the win probabilities for the remaining games:

@ Marshall: 10.1%
UTSA: 27.0%
ODU: 59.7%
@ FAU: 10.7%
WKU: 39.3%
UMASS: 41.7%

So technically, FIU is only favored in the ODU game, but one would hope FIU could "upset" 1 of the remaining 5 teams.... My brain tells me FIU finishes 6-6 or 7-5, but I can't bet against Butch and co. after that Tulane game.


We have to like that the last 5 games are technically at home. Yes counting BOCA since it's only an hour away.

With the offense scoring less than 20 points per game, I can see why the eSPN percentages are so low.

Things that concern me:

1. Historically (McG Era) this is the time of year where McG shits himself.
2. Historically (Turner's OL) this the time of year where the OL cannot match the intensity of teams gunning for bowl eligibility.
3. While we saw many freshmen make contributions last week. No freshman has played OL; this worries me a ton.
4. No word on the injuries that led to more playtime to guys like Russ and Bryce.

We are mid-way thru the season. There is still time to see changes in the roster.
Coaches preach to kids to watch their keys and trust their eyes. I hope Butch is doing the same with the roster.

The encouraging thing is that Butch is a defensive coach and with the exception of MTSU he (and DC Guy) has put together some nice schemes.

I don't think Marshall is the same as Rakheem Cato's version. So I'm having a hard time believing that 17 point spread and the 10% probability. But if they put up 60 on us than it's time for some major roster changes.

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"It's called opportunity, that's what life is all about, you get an opportunity and I think these guys are anxious to have this opportunity and do something with it" - FIU Coach Ron Turner


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 PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:08 am   
Golden Panther

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Building A Dynasty wrote:
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, here are the win probabilities for the remaining games:

@ Marshall: 10.1%
UTSA: 27.0%
ODU: 59.7%
@ FAU: 10.7%
WKU: 39.3%
UMASS: 41.7%

So technically, FIU is only favored in the ODU game, but one would hope FIU could "upset" 1 of the remaining 5 teams.... My brain tells me FIU finishes 6-6 or 7-5, but I can't bet against Butch and co. after that Tulane game.


We also still need to beat ODU. Remember, ODU can also "upset us" too.


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 PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:11 am   
Golden Panther
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There's no one on the schedule FIU can't beat... and no one they can't lose to, either.

Ultimately, we're talking going 2-4 in the last 6... and after the Tulane game, I think it's fair to say FIU is capable of punching above its weight, especially at home.

The most unrealistic win is probably this week at Marshall since it's a road game. FIU won the last time in Boca, if my memory serves, and if BD & Co can outscheme Tulane, I don't see why they can't do the same with Kiffin.

I like us to beat ODU and UMass for sure. FAU's definitely a toss-up. don't care what the FPI says. WKU is probably a loss and UTSA probably is, too... but we could definitely steal one of those at home. If not both.


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 PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:59 am   
Golden Panther

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Clawing Cancer wrote:
There's no one on the schedule FIU can't beat... and no one they can't lose to, either.

Ultimately, we're talking going 2-4 in the last 6... and after the Tulane game, I think it's fair to say FIU is capable of punching above its weight, especially at home.

The most unrealistic win is probably this week at Marshall since it's a road game. FIU won the last time in Boca, if my memory serves, and if BD & Co can outscheme Tulane, I don't see why they can't do the same with Kiffin.

I like us to beat ODU and UMass for sure. FAU's definitely a toss-up. don't care what the FPI says. WKU is probably a loss and UTSA probably is, too... but we could definitely steal one of those at home. If not both.


Actually we lost in Boca in 2015. We had no answer for FAU's D line and Trey Rodriguez in that game. But a lot of the blame is Turner's stubbornness in playing a scheme we didn't have the personnel to support. Last year with Coach Coop we beat them in Miami.

I agree with you that Butch & Co. will need to be really creative with schemes not just for FAU, but WKU as well. If we can't stops with these fast pace, quick strike O, we are in for looong and miserable games.

I think the Marshall game will be determined by how well (or badly) our O plays.

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 PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:33 pm   
Golden Panther
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Sorry, but I don't see us being competitive with FAU for the next couple seasons, unless Kiffin bolts for greener pastures. Partridge was for FAU what MC was for us: a great recruiter but bad game day coach. He left the cupboards stocked with talent for Kiffin, and he's turned that talent, especially on offense, into a finely tuned machine. They get better each game, especially since settling on one QB. Singletary is a P5 talent who decided he wanted to stay close to home.
I guess I'm jaded by past late-season collapses, and I'm still miffed by that MTSU game, but I see us going 1-5 in the 2nd half and missing out on a bowl again. But good lord would I love to be wrong.


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 PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:55 pm   
Golden Panther
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guys not for nothing but

today's game might change some minds re: potential results

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 PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:27 pm   
Cougar

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:01 pm
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You guys surprised me tonight but WKU is gonna be fired up after losing to FAU.


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 PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:05 pm   
Golden Panther

Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2010 11:48 pm
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voss749 wrote:
You guys surprised me tonight but WKU is gonna be fired up after losing to FAU.


WKU will be our last conference game at the end of November. If they are fired up for that game, it will not be over a loss to FAU 4 weeks earlier.

Congrats on the win tonight but the Shula Bowl will remain in Miami :lol:

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2010 Sunbelt Conference Football Champion
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 PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 2:10 am   
Juvenile Panther

Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:20 am
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voss749 wrote:
Im not an FIU fan but Id like to see you guys in a bowl especially if FSU stays home ...
1) Marshall - Blowout loss, they are easily one of the best defenses in the G5.
Building A Dynasty wrote:
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, here are the win probabilities for the remaining games:
@ Marshall: 10.1%
Talk about getting that totally wrong! ;)

With the win over Marshall, FIU is still in control of their destiny. A win over FAU means FIU has tie-breakers over both Marshall and FIU, and are in the C-USA title game. FIU is very, very much still in the title hunt, and far more than most anyone gave FIU a chance to do.

Get past UTSA, and Old Dominion should go down. That would really make the FAU game the true showdown, with WKU waiting in the wings. I'd love to see FIU deliver Kiffin's first conference loss, and change the entire talk.

I'm kinda looking forward to the possibility of the [no longer overrated] Cows playing either FAU or FIU in a Bowl Game. And on the fat chance that Florida wins 3 of its next 4, if the ACC doesn't have enough qualifiers, might be Florida in the Independence Bowl too. ;)

FIU4ever wrote:
Congrats on the win tonight but the Shula Bowl will remain in Miami :lol:
That can still be a 'home game.' It all depends on how the team shows up and the other team travels. Not to pimp my favorite team (being that FIU is my 2nd favorite), but anyone who plays UCF in-state knows this (especially the Cows). ;)


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 PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 3:19 pm   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:43 pm
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Building A Dynasty wrote:
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, here are the win probabilities for the remaining games:

@ Marshall: 10.1%
UTSA: 27.0%
ODU: 59.7%
@ FAU: 10.7%
WKU: 39.3%
UMASS: 41.7%

So technically, FIU is only favored in the ODU game, but one would hope FIU could "upset" 1 of the remaining 5 teams.... My brain tells me FIU finishes 6-6 or 7-5, but I can't bet against Butch and co. after that Tulane game.


After the win at Marshall, here are the new probabilities according to ESPN's FPI:

UTSA: 33.4%
ODU: 67.7%
@ FAU: 13.6%
WKU: 47.7%
UMASS: 48.1%

As you can see, the probabilities went up in each game, but FIU is still only favored in one. I like our odds of going bowling.... Go Panthers!


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