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The Highest-Rated QB in FIU History - It's Not Who You Think

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 PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:47 pm   
Golden Panther
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i decide to log back on here for a few minutes to see if anyone is planning anything crazy yet for the FIU @ UM tailgate and one of the first things i see is this nonsense thread.

southpaw i don't know how old you are but you are certainly not so old to have gone loony. i know math. a sample size for FOOTBALL of 34 attempts amounts at best to one whole game. get the hell out of here with this. C.A. can win his starting spot on the team like everyone else.

holy $$$$.

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 PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:12 am   
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Nothingxs,

I'm not going to try to explain statistics to you. There is no such thing as teaching. There is only learning. It's up to you to do the work. Age doesn't matter. Knowlege is there for all ages.

It will probably make your head explode to know that the presidential election can be predicted to within a margin of error of 1% with 95% confidence with a sample of just 10,000 people out of 135,000,000 voters (0.003% of the population). But it's true, nonetheless.

Christian Alexander's quarterback rating is 117 with a sample of 34 attempts. That's indisputable.

That translates into a margin of error of around 17% with a 95% confidence level. That's statistics. I'm not making this up.

That means that his actual quarterback rating with many, many more attempts is likely to be in the range of 97 to 137, with a confidence of 95%. The highest quarterback rating in FIU history is 86 by Wes Carroll. In other words, there is a 95% chance that Christian's lowest possible QB rating is 97. And that rating is significantly higher than the best FIU QB rating of all time.

If you know math, you'll understand this.

I'm not handing Christian the job. I'm just saying he deserves a fair chance... which up until this point, he has never gotten.

His QB rating suggests that he is far, far better than anyone has given him credit for.

Like I said before, let the best man win. But regardless of the outcome, I think our QB situation is in much better shape than last year.

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 PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:37 pm   
Golden Panther
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Southpaw, I still think it is too small of a sample size. I was shouting to put him in at the Gasperilla Bowl but let's get real.

Without looking, I'm assuming most of those attempts came in garbage time against the other teams 3rd stringers.

We should be excited about him and James Morgan competing to take the reins this year. Both have lots of upside.


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 PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 3:01 pm   
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SouthPaw, your logic is flawed. Period. You aren't accounting for the many other variables that go into those numbers. The majority of those attempts came against two opponents: WKU and ODU in the 2016 season. In the WKU game, FIU was already getting blown out and CA was playing against a vanilla defense and potentially backups. That is not a fair comparison. It's much easier to do well then. You aren't sampling from the full distribution of potential defenses and in-game situations. You can't extrapolate those numbers.

Christian may be a good QB and have a great QBR this year. But you can't assume that solely from his past performance.


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 PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:29 am   
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SouthPaw wrote:
Nothingxs,


It will probably make your head explode to know that the presidential election can be predicted to within a margin of error of 1% with 95% confidence with a sample of just 10,000 people out of 135,000,000 voters (0.003% of the population). But it's true, nonetheless.




This is what I remember from the last presidential election cycle...MOST polls got it wrong. Methodology and assumptions can totally make polls useless. A sample size of a quarterback with approximately 40 passes against second string bland defenses in mop up duty may not be a great indicator of future success. But I agree with most on here, if he is on the roster he should get an equal chance to win the job.


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 PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:00 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 11:38 pm
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FAU Connoisseur wrote:
SouthPaw wrote:
Nothingxs,


It will probably make your head explode to know that the presidential election can be predicted to within a margin of error of 1% with 95% confidence with a sample of just 10,000 people out of 135,000,000 voters (0.003% of the population). But it's true, nonetheless.




This is what I remember from the last presidential election cycle...MOST polls got it wrong. Methodology and assumptions can totally make polls useless. A sample size of a quarterback with approximately 40 passes against second string bland defenses in mop up duty may not be a great indicator of future success. But I agree with most on here, if he is on the roster he should get an equal chance to win the job.


Which he is getting. The belief is that Morgan, being a 4-star QB with game experience, is the front runner.


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 PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:58 am   
Golden Panther

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JulesFIU07 wrote:
FAU Connoisseur wrote:
SouthPaw wrote:
Nothingxs,


It will probably make your head explode to know that the presidential election can be predicted to within a margin of error of 1% with 95% confidence with a sample of just 10,000 people out of 135,000,000 voters (0.003% of the population). But it's true, nonetheless.




This is what I remember from the last presidential election cycle...MOST polls got it wrong. Methodology and assumptions can totally make polls useless. A sample size of a quarterback with approximately 40 passes against second string bland defenses in mop up duty may not be a great indicator of future success. But I agree with most on here, if he is on the roster he should get an equal chance to win the job.


Which he is getting. The belief is that Morgan, being a 4-star QB with game experience, is the front runner.


It's just not a believe, Butch stated on the radio interview with Joe Rose, that Christian took huge steps in the spring. But that he will have to beat out CaptainMorgan.
Morgan will come in as the pencil starter and Christian must beat him. Christian will have a lot going for him to win including:
Second year in system
familiarity with players
familiarity with coaches
and as the Highest-Rate QB in FIU History he should win the job in week one.

:shock:

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 PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:59 pm   
Golden Panther
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I never said give Christian the job. I just said give the kid a fair chance... which he HASN"T HAD UP TO THIS POINT. Coach Davis didn't give him a chance last year. And even the sorry Ron Turner never gave him a chance.

But finally.... finally... Butch appears to be giving him a chance. That's all I wanted.

The argument about his game experience not being a representative sample is a fair argument (playing in garbage time against third-string defenses). But as I've said, you also have to give Christian credit for playing with second- and third-string offensive players. Wes Carrol, Alex McGough, Paul McCall, Josh Padrick, and Jake Medlock played almost all of their snaps with first-stringers. So that's a mitigating factor. If Christian played with first-string offensive players against first-string defensive players, his numbers might be similar.

The argument that the sample size is too small is not valid. The sample size tells you what margin of error you have with a given confidence level. Yes, 34 attempts is small. That's why the possible range of his actual QB rating (97 to 137 with a 95% confidence level) is so wide. And no sample, no matter how large, will give you a 100% accurate answer.

My whole point is that Christian's numbers in his small sample of work tells you pretty clearly that the coaches should have given him a much larger sample of work.

My take is that he didn't play that well in practice for whatever reason. He was probably forcing throws trying to impress the coaches. He probably threw too many interceptions or made too many bad reads. I'm sure with maturity the game is finally slowing down for him.

I don't care if he or Morgan wins the job. I want the best guy in there. I'm just saying our QB situation is in far better shape than most on this board are giving credit for. That's because that data says that Christian is much better than anyone knows. It wasn't until very recently that Coach Davis seems to be confirming that.

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FIU is the city of Miami's only state university.
FIU is Miami State University.

Official Name:
State University of Florida at Miami, or
Miami State University of Florida, or
Miami Florida State University


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