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2019 season by the numbers

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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:25 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:43 pm
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With the regular season over, I thought I'd look back and provide some quick statistics, with comparisons to last year, for reference. I may provide a more detailed analysis at a later time.

Stats are listed as follows: year, value, FBS rank

OFFENSE:

Points per game:
2019: 26.2 (77)
2018: 32.9 (28)

Yards per game:
2019: 365.3 (96)
2018: 406.4 (59)

Rushing yards per attempt:
2019: 4.3 (64)
2018: 4.7 (43)

Passing yards per attempt:
2019: 7.0 (85)
2018: 7.7 (42)

3rd down conversion percentage:
2019: 37.4% (85)
2018: 47.3% (11)


DEFENSE:

Opponent points per game:
2019: 27.5 (60)
2018: 26.6 (56)

Opponent yards per game:
2019: 384.8 (54)
2018: 395.5 (63)

Opponents rush yards per attempt:
2019: 5.2 (110)
2018: 5.0 (101)

Opponent pass yards per attempt:
2019: 6.5 (22)
2018: 6.9 (42)

Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage:
2019: 37.0% (43)
2018: 40.7% (82)


MAIN POINT:

I would argue two main reasons for the disappointing season this year:

1) The offense significantly regressed. The offense averaged a full TD per game less than the 2018 campaign. Both the rushing and passing attacks were not as effective as last year. The biggest change was in 3rd down conversion %. When you have an offense that lacks explosive plays, you need to convert on third downs. 2018 FIU excelled at that (11th nationally!), while 2019 FIU was 85th in FBS.

2) An awful rushing defense somehow got even worse in 2019. It's really hard to win football games when you are giving up 5.2 yards per carry on the ground. On the road, FIU gave up 6.3 yards per rush! This explains the 0-5 road record this year...

I'd be happy to hear your thoughts.


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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:42 am   
Golden Panther
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That about sums it up... although I do think we played what turned out to be a bit of a "tougher" schedule this year.

If you look at my pre-season predictions, I was worried about the loss of CJ Whorton and who else might be able to blow the top off to open the run game.

Bryce Singleton and Sterling Palmer are two guys I was hoping to replace the receiving production, which didn't quite happen. Shamar Thorton was a nice surprise though.

Beating Miami keeps the season from being a total throwaway - I'm hoping we still get a chance to play in a bowl.


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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:48 am   
Golden Panther
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Very good stuff, BAD! Defensively, very similar to last season. Some stats marginally worse, some marginally better. Bad both seasons. The offense is where the obvious statistical difference lies in, as you said. Due in part to early struggles of O-Line and W R corps, coupled with QB, OL, and WR’s injuries. As Roary stated, a decidedly tougher schedule (away games were all tough teams) may have contributed some as well.

Thanks BAD.

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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:29 am   
Golden Panther

Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:25 am
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I certainly underestimated the importance of the loss of Whorton and Earwig. I worried a little about the latter, but assumed that Morgan being a senior would adapt. He did not, regressing in his ability to move around if anything. And I assumed the coaches had receivers groomed to step up. They clearly did not. With Morgan, Jones, et al gone, I wonder what on earth stands in the way of a further regression for 2020?

As for the defense, I think we all assumed that the firing of the DC and the promotion of the committee to replace would result in a change of approach. Incredibly, it did not. We stuck doggedly to our system. Better pray the defensive personnel improves, my friends, because I do not think we are going to see major changes staffside. With Tart gone and our version of Ray Lewis gone, I am a bit fearful for 2020 on this side as well.

Then again, given that a 9-3 or 10-2 2019 was in the air, maybe it's better to go into next year with a general feeling of dread. Anyways, good work, Dynasty.


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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:58 am   
Golden Panther

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Diagodog wrote:
I certainly underestimated the importance of the loss of Whorton and Earwig. I worried a little about the latter, but assumed that Morgan being a senior would adapt. He did not, regressing in his ability to move around if anything. And I assumed the coaches had receivers groomed to step up. They clearly did not. With Morgan, Jones, et al gone, I wonder what on earth stands in the way of a further regression for 2020?

As for the defense, I think we all assumed that the firing of the DC and the promotion of the committee to replace would result in a change of approach. Incredibly, it did not. We stuck doggedly to our system. Better pray the defensive personnel improves, my friends, because I do not think we are going to see major changes staffside. With Tart gone and our version of Ray Lewis gone, I am a bit fearful for 2020 on this side as well.

Then again, given that a 9-3 or 10-2 2019 was in the air, maybe it's better to go into next year with a general feeling of dread. Anyways, good work, Dynasty.


Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm not too concerned about the offense getting worse in 2020. Here's why:

1) We return nearly the entire O-line, except for Dallas Connell and Shac Williams. Dallas will certainly be a big loss, but keeping 4/5 of the five starters is huge. The O-line played much better as the season went on and getting guys like Finau and Hudson another year in the weight room will only help their development. Maybe Butch will bring in another JUCO/transfer portal guy to make an immediate impact. Bottom line, I think the O-line gets better next year.

2) We played without the two best WRs on our roster this year. Bryce Singleton missed the whole season and JJ Holloman was ineligible. I don't think some realize how big of a pickup JJ is. He is simply elite. He was going to be Georgia's top returning WR. He is a proven commodity. He is the closest thing this program has seen to TY Hilton since TY Hilton. Losing Gaiter, MA, and Maloney sucks, but I think the two guys I mentioned, plus Thornton more than make up for the loss. I think Nate Jefferson and Kris Mitchell will be more involved with the offense too. All the TEs return too.

3) We are stacked at RB. Losing Jones and Maxwell is tough, but we have at least four talented backs already on the roster: D'Vonte Price (who played injured this year), Maleek Williams (Arkansas transfer), Flex Joseph, and Shaun Peterson. Townsend may even get some carries too. I'm not worried about the RB position.

Now the biggest question mark is the QB. Point blank. Who starts next year? Wiggins? Lynum? Stone? Does Butch bring in another grad transfer, like he did with James Morgan? I trust that Butch will have a guy ready to go week 1. I'm leaning toward either Stone or Wiggins at this time. I think Stone has the highest ceiling. His high school film was really impressive, but it's hard adjusting to the FBS speed of the game. Regardless, I think whoever the QB is, they will be surrounded by weapons that allow them to excel.


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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:18 pm   
Golden Panther

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From your lips to God's ears, Dynasty. It will be interesting to see what happens at QB, for sure.


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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:39 pm   
Golden Panther
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Diagodog wrote:
From your lips to God's ears, Dynasty. It will be interesting to see what happens at QB, for sure.


AHHMEN.


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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:24 pm   
Golden Panther
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Those numbers really do tell a story.

I think it's clear we need to make a change on the defensive side of the ball. Butch needs to bring in a new defensive coordinator. Only one, not two. We can't go with the same two co-coordinators next year. Aside from the Miami game, they were very not creative at bringing pressure, very slow to make any changes and in-game adjustments, didn't play our best players nearly enough (or at all), and subbed way too much throughout the game.

On offense, I agree, the QB is the biggest question mark. In my opinion, from just looking at high school tape, Stone has the most talent and upside. The recruit Haden Carlson is going to be good. His dad was a pro. Just not sure he'll be ready next year, but he could challenge for time in most programs that have head coaches willing to play freshmen.

I still stand by my belief the Demarcus Townsend is our best RB when healthy. Can't wait to see him get some touches.

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 PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:53 pm   
Golden Panther

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QB and defense really worry me next season.


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