SouthPaw wrote:
One word: statistics.
I'm not going to get into a mathematics debate with the people on this board. There's plenty of information out there on statistics and mathematics you can read for yourself if you are interested. I majored in both for a while at FIU before finally switching to a degree that offered more employment opportunities.
But the bottom line is this...
You don't need a sample of 5,000 throws to know if one quarterback is better than another. There's lots of research that proves a sample needs to be at least 30 or higher to have any statistical value. But after a certain size of a sample is drawn, you're basically wasting your time.
The size of any sample depends on a lot of different factors, including what confidence level and confidence interval you are willing to accept, as well as the size and variability of the population being sampled. I'm not saying a larger sample of Christian's work wouldn't be more meaningful. Of course it would. But you also can't blindly ignore his numbers and write them off. He's played in more than one game. And he's thrown more than a handful of passes. In fact, he's thrown 4 touchdowns, double that of Maurice Alexander. And he did it in 12 less games than Maurice and with less than a quarter of the attempts (114 fewer passes).
But here's what's important.... Christian's passer rating is so far above the other FIU QB's that even though the confidence interval and confidence level isn't as high as they would be if we were looking at a larger sample of his work, the data clearly tells us that he deserved more playing time than he's gotten. What do I mean?
Let's say the small sample size is artificially inflating his passer rating by say 30%. Keep in mind that the small sample size has an equal chance of understating his true passer rating. His rating might actually be higher if he got more playing time. But let's assume--for the sake of this argument--that his true rating would be 30% lower if he got the same number of attempts as other FIU QB's. In that case, his passer rating would be 90. That's still higher than all other QB's in FIU's history. That's why I'm saying you can't write off his numbers. Right now, he's a clear outlier. He's clearly the best from a numeric point-of-view.
Maybe he stinks in practice but is great in games. I don't know. But what the data says is that when he gets a chance in games, he performs at a level far above all other QB's in FIU's history.
And the argument that Christian didn't play against first-string defenses doesn't hold water with me. Sure, that's true. But neither did E.J. Hilliard, David Tabor, or Maurice Alexander. And Christian's passer rating is much, much higher than theirs. But more importantly, you guys seem to be forgetting that he's not playing with first-string offensive players either. He's playing behind second- and third-string offensive linemen. And he's throwing to backup wide receivers and tight ends.
I still think James Morgan will win the job. The coaches are going to favor him. It's his to lose. But I feel good about having Christian as a back-up. He has earned more snaps.
Good luck to them both.
I never majored in stats but I've done enough work with them in sports and news to know you're right about sample sizes. I wouldn't totally dismiss what CA has done, either. I just don't think it's worth a whole lot at this point.
About the only thing I would conclusively take is I'd give him a good, hard look as the potential starter in fall camp. But that's assuming there's no other negative factors and we don't know that part. Maybe he's not a good leader or good in the locker room. Maybe the coaches don't like how he practices or preps or his gym work. Who knows?
I suspect it'll be Morgan, too. For whatever reason, Butch & Co don't seem to trust CA. Or maybe they just felt better with MA last season. I don't know why else he wouldn't have played. Lord knows it's not like MA was ripping it up at any point.
If CA isn't starting at the beginning of the year, though, I think you can safely say he won't play unless Morgan is hurt. If he's going to win the job, the time is now.
